Will Conventional Public Transport Users Adopt Autonomous Public Transport? A Model Integrating UTAUT Model and Satisfaction–Loyalty Model

As an emerging technology for sustainable, safe, energy-efficient, and smooth traffic flow, autonomous public transport (APT) has been widely studied in recent years. However, the influence of conventional public transport (CPT) on behavioural intentions toward APT is largely overlooked. While APT is in its nascent phase, users’ choices may be shaped by their perceptions and attitudes toward CPT. Therefore, identifying these perceptions and examining their effect on behavioural intention is crucial. In this study, the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) is integrated with the satisfaction-loyalty model to analyze the key factors influencing behavioural intentions toward APT. To obtain more precise findings, this study examined public transport by type, including rubber-tired systems, urban rail, and bus rapid transit, rather than as a single mode, unlike many previous studies. A survey (n = 1271) was employed to validate the theoretical model among CPT users in Istanbul. The results indicate that loyalty to CPT significantly influences behavioural intention toward APT. Moreover, users of different CPT types have distinct priorities influencing their intention to use APT. While users of rubber-tired systems prioritize effort expectancy, social influence and facilitating conditions, users of urban rail systems consider social influence, trust and loyalty to CPT to be decisive factors. Furthermore, users of bus rapid transit systems consider performance expectancy, effort expectancy, trust, and loyalty to CPT as key factors influencing their behavioural intention. The findings are expected to enrich theoretical research on behavioural intention toward APT and guide future integration and transition between CPT and APT.