The impact of investing in social care on employment generation, time-, income-poverty by gender: A macro-micro policy simulation for Turkey

This paper uses applied macro–micro policy modeling and simulation to explore the gendered impact of increased public expenditures on Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC) on employment and income generation, time allocation to paid versus unpaid work, and poverty. We use a statistically matched dataset from the 2015 Time Use Survey and the Survey on Income and Living Conditions in Turkey to assess the poverty impact not only in terms of official income poverty but also in terms of time-poverty and a combined time- and income poverty measure. We find that increased spending on expansion of ECEC services in the order of 1.8 percent of GDP, generates over a million new jobs, and provides employment for previously non-employed persons, in particular, women. Many job recipient households are lifted above the income poverty threshold reducing the official poverty rate. However, employment into a new job creates a substantial time-poverty effect for women with small children, increasing their time- and income-poverty measure by 50 percent. The positive consumption effects of higher purchasing power (through new jobs and earnings) are dominated by the negative consumption effects of higher time deficits in household production. When newly employed women with small children are also given access to childcare services, their required time for household production decreases by more than one-third, effectively addressing the gendered time poverty. With simultaneous access to ECEC, the time-poverty rates of newly employed women with small children is reduced almost by half and their combined time- and income-poverty rate is reduced by 67 percent. These findings show that employment creation through increased social care spending does not only have the potential to generate a substantial number of jobs in a gender balanced manner, but it also helps to alleviate time- and income poverty and improve gender equality.