Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems

Gizem Intepe; Tufan V. Koc

doi:10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132

Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems

Gizem Intepe
, Tufan V. Koc

Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü

Istanbul Technical University

Araştırma sonucu: Kitap/Rapor/Konferans Bildirisinde Bölüm › Konferans katkısı › bilirkişi

2 Atıf (Scopus)

Özet

A complex product system consists of numerous subsystems organized in a hierarchical fashion. In literature there exists a tendency in measuring the life cycle of main system by using parameters which characterize the performance of that main technology. This may lead to problems in investment decisions for technology renewal since the forecast of main system technology lifecycle is associated but does not fully represent its subsystems lifecycle. This paper intends to clarify this problem with a case study by showing while the main system is in its midlife; some of the subsystems are approaching their limits and requires urgent radical investment. As a case study refrigerator system is used and the relevant life cycles are obtained using growth curves as a technology forecasting tool. The findings are discussed and suggestions for the need of a multiple level of analysis are given in the discussion section.

Orijinal dil	İngilizce
Ana bilgisayar yayını başlığı	PICMET 2015 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology
Ana bilgisayar yayını alt yazısı	Management of the Technology Age, Proceedings
Editörler	Tugrul U. Daim, Dilek Cetindamar Kozanoglu, Dundar F. Kocaoglu, Timothy R. Anderson, Gary Perman, Kiyoshi Niwa
Yayınlayan	Portland State University
Sayfalar	2133-2138
Sayfa sayısı	6
ISBN (Elektronik)	9781890843328
DOI'lar	https://doi.org/10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132
Yayın durumu	Yayınlandı - 21 Eyl 2015
Etkinlik	Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology, PICMET 2015 - Portland, United States Süre: 2 Ağu 2015 → 6 Ağu 2015

Yayın serisi

Adı	Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology
Hacim	2015-September

???event.eventtypes.event.conference???

???event.eventtypes.event.conference???	Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology, PICMET 2015
Ülke/Bölge	United States
Şehir	Portland
Periyot	2/08/15 → 6/08/15

Bibliyografik not

Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology.

Belgeye Erişim

10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132

Diğer Dosyalar ve Linkler

Link to publication in Scopus

Alıntı Yap

Intepe, G., & Koc, T. V. (2015). Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems. In T. U. Daim, D. C. Kozanoglu, D. F. Kocaoglu, T. R. Anderson, G. Perman, & K. Niwa (Eds.), PICMET 2015 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology: Management of the Technology Age, Proceedings (pp. 2133-2138). Makale 7273132 (Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology; Hac. 2015-September). Portland State University. https://doi.org/10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132

Intepe, Gizem ; Koc, Tufan V. / Technology forecasting : Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems. PICMET 2015 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology: Management of the Technology Age, Proceedings. editör / Tugrul U. Daim ; Dilek Cetindamar Kozanoglu ; Dundar F. Kocaoglu ; Timothy R. Anderson ; Gary Perman ; Kiyoshi Niwa. Portland State University, 2015. pp. 2133-2138 (Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology).

@inproceedings{453aa6a0576d4c35b492dce761079c25,

title = "Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems",

abstract = "A complex product system consists of numerous subsystems organized in a hierarchical fashion. In literature there exists a tendency in measuring the life cycle of main system by using parameters which characterize the performance of that main technology. This may lead to problems in investment decisions for technology renewal since the forecast of main system technology lifecycle is associated but does not fully represent its subsystems lifecycle. This paper intends to clarify this problem with a case study by showing while the main system is in its midlife; some of the subsystems are approaching their limits and requires urgent radical investment. As a case study refrigerator system is used and the relevant life cycles are obtained using growth curves as a technology forecasting tool. The findings are discussed and suggestions for the need of a multiple level of analysis are given in the discussion section.",

author = "Gizem Intepe and Koc, \{Tufan V.\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2014 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology.; Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology, PICMET 2015 ; Conference date: 02-08-2015 Through 06-08-2015",

year = "2015",

month = sep,

day = "21",

doi = "10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132",

language = "English",

series = "Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology",

publisher = "Portland State University",

pages = "2133--2138",

editor = "Daim, \{Tugrul U.\} and Kozanoglu, \{Dilek Cetindamar\} and Kocaoglu, \{Dundar F.\} and Anderson, \{Timothy R.\} and Gary Perman and Kiyoshi Niwa",

booktitle = "PICMET 2015 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology",

}

Intepe, G & Koc, TV 2015, Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems. in TU Daim, DC Kozanoglu, DF Kocaoglu, TR Anderson, G Perman & K Niwa (eds), PICMET 2015 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology: Management of the Technology Age, Proceedings., 7273132, Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology, hac. 2015-September, Portland State University, pp. 2133-2138, Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology, PICMET 2015, Portland, United States, 2/08/15. https://doi.org/10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132

Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems. / Intepe, Gizem; Koc, Tufan V.
PICMET 2015 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology: Management of the Technology Age, Proceedings. ed. / Tugrul U. Daim; Dilek Cetindamar Kozanoglu; Dundar F. Kocaoglu; Timothy R. Anderson; Gary Perman; Kiyoshi Niwa. Portland State University, 2015. p. 2133-2138 7273132 (Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology; Hac. 2015-September).

Araştırma sonucu: Kitap/Rapor/Konferans Bildirisinde Bölüm › Konferans katkısı › bilirkişi

TY - GEN

T1 - Technology forecasting

T2 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology, PICMET 2015

AU - Intepe, Gizem

AU - Koc, Tufan V.

PY - 2015/9/21

Y1 - 2015/9/21

N2 - A complex product system consists of numerous subsystems organized in a hierarchical fashion. In literature there exists a tendency in measuring the life cycle of main system by using parameters which characterize the performance of that main technology. This may lead to problems in investment decisions for technology renewal since the forecast of main system technology lifecycle is associated but does not fully represent its subsystems lifecycle. This paper intends to clarify this problem with a case study by showing while the main system is in its midlife; some of the subsystems are approaching their limits and requires urgent radical investment. As a case study refrigerator system is used and the relevant life cycles are obtained using growth curves as a technology forecasting tool. The findings are discussed and suggestions for the need of a multiple level of analysis are given in the discussion section.

AB - A complex product system consists of numerous subsystems organized in a hierarchical fashion. In literature there exists a tendency in measuring the life cycle of main system by using parameters which characterize the performance of that main technology. This may lead to problems in investment decisions for technology renewal since the forecast of main system technology lifecycle is associated but does not fully represent its subsystems lifecycle. This paper intends to clarify this problem with a case study by showing while the main system is in its midlife; some of the subsystems are approaching their limits and requires urgent radical investment. As a case study refrigerator system is used and the relevant life cycles are obtained using growth curves as a technology forecasting tool. The findings are discussed and suggestions for the need of a multiple level of analysis are given in the discussion section.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84955607205

U2 - 10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132

DO - 10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:84955607205

T3 - Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology

SP - 2133

EP - 2138

BT - PICMET 2015 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology

A2 - Daim, Tugrul U.

A2 - Kozanoglu, Dilek Cetindamar

A2 - Kocaoglu, Dundar F.

A2 - Anderson, Timothy R.

A2 - Perman, Gary

A2 - Niwa, Kiyoshi

PB - Portland State University

Y2 - 2 August 2015 through 6 August 2015

ER -

Intepe G, Koc TV. Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems. In Daim TU, Kozanoglu DC, Kocaoglu DF, Anderson TR, Perman G, Niwa K, editörler, PICMET 2015 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology: Management of the Technology Age, Proceedings. Portland State University. 2015. p. 2133-2138. 7273132. (Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology). doi: 10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132

Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems

Özet

Yayın serisi

???event.eventtypes.event.conference???

Bibliyografik not

Belgeye Erişim

Diğer Dosyalar ve Linkler

Parmak izi

Alıntı Yap