Structural Damage Sensitive Content Vulnerability Modeling for Turk Reinsurance Earthquake Loss Modeling Platform

This paper presents a methodology to develop content vulnerabilities conditioned on building damage for a wide range of non-attached or attached equipment used in residential, commercial and industrial assets. The approach combines the damage state probabilities of structures sheltering the content and the content using a Bayesian approach to develop the content vulnerabilities. The paper first presents the procedure and then addresses the epistemic uncertainty in structure and content fragilities to show their effects on the content vulnerability. The epistemic uncertainty also accounts for the expert opinion differences in the content replacement cost ratios (consequence functions). Monte Carlo simulations are implemented while considering the epistemic uncertainty in each model component contributing to the vulnerability calculations. The procedure is used while building up the content vulnerability library of Turk Reinsurance Inc. for earthquake loss modeling of insured assets in Turkey. One particular aspect of the approach is the consideration of Turkish building stock fragilities and consequence models.