Spatiotemporal Modeling of Heat and Cold Waves in Northeast Syria: A 23-Year Analysis

Extreme weather conditions, particularly heat waves and cold waves pose a threat to society by impacting habitability, health, and social interactions. In recent decades, the effects of heat stress on public health have been of great concern worldwide. As a result, human biometeorological indices are widely used to assess the links between the outdoor environment and human well-being. This study examines the spatiotemporal modelling of heat and cold indices over 23 years in Northeast Syria. Two indices are considered to evaluate the degree of heat and cold stress in the outdoor environment: the Heat Index (HI) and thermo-hygrometric index (THI). Daily meteorological data, encompassing air temperature and dew point temperature, were acquired from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5-Land reanalysis between 2000 and 2022, and with a global resolution of 0.1°. This data set is accessible and processed through Google Earth Engine (GEE). The spatial distribution of these indices reveals significant spatiotemporal variability. The northern areas of southeast and western Syria show increased vulnerability to heat according to the HI index, while the southernmost part of northeast Syria shows pronounced vulnerability to cold according to the THI index. This suggests that a significant proportion of the population living in these areas is likely to be more vulnerable to specific health problems. This situation could potentially trigger socio-economic ramifications related to cold waves in northeast Syria and to heat waves in the west and south. Therefore, the indices used play a crucial role in assessing heat levels in the environment and protecting individuals against heat-related illnesses.