Spatial and Temporal Impact Chain Analysis on Seismic Risks of Istanbul

Impact chain analysis is a useful tool to reveal the root causes and cascading effects of disasters. Furthermore, the visualized output of the analysis addresses not only the academia but also the stakeholders and community. The articulated structure of the impact chain analysis allows the integration of new entries that can define the progression of different types of vulnerabilities that enables monitoring the emergence of risks in a given area. Istanbul, as an earthquake-prone megacity, represents a high complexity by the means of spatial configuration, sectoral interdependency and systemic connectivity. The impact chain approach has been deployed for Istanbul to present a comprehensive perspective by fragmenting causal components of the most probable impacts of an earthquake. Spatial and temporal variables have been integrated to the impact chain analysis through some hypothetical scenarios which also cover the daily/seasonal mobility of the inhabitants. The results which have been produced in a stakeholders’ workshop, showed that the impact chain analysis differentiated according to the temporal and spatial variables for the first 72 h following the earthquake.