Seismic hazard evaluation in Western Turkey as revealed by stress transfer and time-dependent probability calculations

P. M. Paradisopoulou, E. E. Papadimitriou, V. G. Karakostas, T. Taymaz, A. Kilias, S. Yolsal

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Western Turkey has a long history of destructive earthquakes that are responsible for the death of thousands of people and which caused devastating damage to the existing infrastructures, and cultural and historical monuments. The recent earthquakes of Izmit (Kocaeli) on 17 August, 1999 (Mw = 7.4) and Düzce (Mw = 7.2) on 12 November, 1999, which occurred in the neighboring fault segments along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), were catastrophic ones for the Marmara region and surroundings in NW Turkey. Stress transfer between the two adjacent fault segments successfully explained the temporal proximity of these events. Similar evidence is also provided from recent studies dealing with successive strong events occurrence along the NAF and parts of the Aegean Sea; in that changes in the stress field due to the coseismic displacement of the stronger events influence the occurrence of the next events of comparable size by advancing their occurrence time and delimiting their occurrence place. In the present study the evolution of the stress field since the beginning of the twentieth century in the territory of the eastern Aegean Sea and western Turkey is examined, in an attempt to test whether the history of cumulative changes in stress can explain the spatial and temporal occurrence patterns of large earthquakes in this area. Coulomb stress changes are calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in elastic half space, taking into account both the coseismic slip in large (M ≥6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup along the major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for strike-slip and normal faults. In each stage of the evolutionary model the stress field is calculated according to the strike, dip, and rake angles of the next large event, whose triggering is inspected, and the possible sites for future strong earthquakes can be assessed. A new insight on the evaluation of future seismic hazards is given by translating the calculated stress changes into earthquake probability using an earthquake nucleation constitutive relation, which includes permanent and transient effects of the sudden stress changes.

Orijinal dilİngilizce
Sayfa (başlangıç-bitiş)1013-1048
Sayfa sayısı36
DergiPure and Applied Geophysics
Basın numarası8-9
Yayın durumuYayınlandı - Ağu 2010


The paper greatly benefited from insightful comments of two anonymous reviewers and the editorial assistance of Martha Savage. The stress tensors were calculated using a program written by J. Deng (DENG and SYKES, 1997), based on the DIS3D code of S. Dunbar, which later improved (ERIKSON, 1986) and the expressions of G. Converse. Paradisopoulou P. M. wishes to express her sincere and profound thanks to Professor Stanislaw Lasocki and Assistant Professors Janusz Mirek and Beata Orlecka–Sikora from the Faculty of Geology, Geophysics and Environmental Protection, AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow Poland, for many useful suggestions, ideas and assistance for the preparation of the useful application for our calculations. Part of this undertaking entailed a 2-month visit of the first author to AGH University in the frame of PENED grand. Critical reading of the manuscript by Rodolfo Console, from Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy, is greatly appreciated. The GMT system (WESSEL and SMITH, 1998) was used to plot the figures. The first author is a grantee of the 03ED375 research project implemented within the framework of the ‘‘Reinforcement Programme of Human Research Manpower’’ (PENED) and co-financed by the National and Community Funds (25% from the Greek Ministry of Development-General Secretariat of Research and Technology and 75% from E.U.-European Social Fund) (Grant No. 03E∆815 61585 23-09-05). Geophysics Department contribution 742.

FinansörlerFinansör numarası
E.U.-European Social Fund03E∆815 61585 23-09-05
Greek Ministry of Development-General Secretariat of Research and Technology
National and Community Funds

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