Scenario-based land use estimation: The case of sakarya

This paper presents scenario-based modelling of urban land use which stem from interactions of the urban functions of Sakarya, one of the most important city for agricultural production and a vulnerable region in terms of natural resources and seismicity in Turkey. The purpose of the paper is to estimate the future land use pattern of Sakarya and discuss the environmental effects of alternative spatial policies. ‘Whatif?’ approach which allows the users to develop various scenarios, provide a basis to measure the impact of new development areas on natural environment and revise the policies easily in relation to the land use estimation model results and future urban development pattern.