S-Curve models to determine the car ownership in Turkey

Car ownership and use influence the city structure, public investment priorities including the roadway infrastructure, and the patterns of daily life. The study of car ownership, as a classic topic in the area of transportation, is assistive to the transportation officials in the road system planning, policies and design. In the developed countries, car ownership study has already been advanced to the household level and currently is being refined to the daily usage level through micro simulation. However, in the developing countries, due to the lack of the disaggregated data, the car ownership study is at the aggregated level. In this study, the car ownership in Turkey is modeled by using three extrapolatory models, which are the logistic, power growth and Gompertz curves. In addition, three scenarios are developed in order to make forecast until 2020.