Risk Management of Independent Consecutive Hydrological Disasters: The 1995 Senirkent Flood Case Following a Prolonged Dry Period

This study deals with the risk management of independent consecutive hydrological disasters, through the case of flood in Senirkent, Isparta that occurred in 1995 after a 16-month long dry period over years 1993-1994. It presents a first case in this regard to the hydrology and water resources literature in Turkey. The original contribution of the study is to evaluate the risk of each of the independent successive disasters, not separately, but in a dynamic framework, instead of individual disaster-oriented risk management. In the study, in addition to the quantitative characteristics of disasters such as severity and duration, the elements of exposure and vulnerability were also discussed; direct and indirect effects of disasters were evaluated through comprehensive data analysis and literature review. The findings revealed that even the consecutive disasters are independent and do not trigger each other, they can increase the risk level and deepen societal risks by interrupting regional recovery processes as a result of the dynamic interaction of their common effects, and strongly emphasized the necessity of transitioning to multiple disaster risk management. The study advocates the development of holistic and scenario-based preventive disaster risk management strategies instead of crisis management; and offers original and concrete suggestions for the future regarding the development of risk management policies.