TY - GEN
T1 - Risk assessment due to electricity demand forecasting under uncertainty
AU - Bolturk, E.
AU - Oztaysi, B.
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - With the new regulations in Turkey, companies have started to buy electricity from different suppliers in the market. Thus, from the perspective of the electricity providers demand forecasting has become a significant issue. Errors in electricity demand forecasting generate a considerable amount of risk. For electricity suppliers, assessment of this risk caused by the uncertainty has become an important issue. In this paper real world case study is given and Value-At-Risk (VAR) value is calculated due to load forecast errors. The ARIMA and Grey forecasting methods are used for predicting the electricity consumption.
AB - With the new regulations in Turkey, companies have started to buy electricity from different suppliers in the market. Thus, from the perspective of the electricity providers demand forecasting has become a significant issue. Errors in electricity demand forecasting generate a considerable amount of risk. For electricity suppliers, assessment of this risk caused by the uncertainty has become an important issue. In this paper real world case study is given and Value-At-Risk (VAR) value is calculated due to load forecast errors. The ARIMA and Grey forecasting methods are used for predicting the electricity consumption.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84887923084
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84887923084
SN - 9781138000193
T3 - Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013
SP - 717
EP - 722
BT - Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013
T2 - 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013
Y2 - 27 August 2013 through 29 August 2013
ER -