Present-day strain accumulations and fault kinematics at the Hatay Triple Junction using new geodetic constraints

Ali Özkan*, Hasan Hakan Yavaşoğlu, Frédéric Masson

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The East Anatolian Fault (EAF), Cyprus Arc and Dead Sea Fault (DSF) intersect at the Hatay Triple Junction (HTJ) in southern Turkey, which is a tectonically controversial zone among researchers. Although it is not as active as the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) or other segments on the EAF in terms of seismicity, the HTJ accumulates strain causing considerable seismic activity in the region. Prior to this study, the strain accumulations and kinematics of the HTJ have not been precisely investigated using such a dense GPS network comprising permanent GPS stations, Turkish National Fundamental GPS Network (TUTGA) and campaign sites. Here, the fault slip rates and locking depths were constrained in the vicinity of HTJ using a new velocity field and improved block modeling. As per the results of block modeling, the EAF and Karatas-Osmaniye Fault (KOF) are fully locked down to depths of 15 km and 7 km, respectively. Furthermore, the Karasu Fault (KF) has a fully locked seismogenic zone to 7 km depth with a similar slip distribution to the EAF. Our kinematic model suggests 9.2 mm/yr left-lateral strike-slip rate and 2.0–2.7 mm/yr thrust faulting slip rate at the southwest end of the EAF. The KF appears to have left-lateral strike-slip at the rates ranging 4.0–5.5 mm/yr, while contrarily it has no significant normal/reverse faulting component. In addition, the KOF accommodates left-lateral strike-slip of 3.3–4.5 mm/yr and extension with the rates of 1.8–2.7 mm/yr. The new constraints on the fault slip rates associated with the HTJ correspond to predictions for a probable large earthquake with possible magnitude ranging from 7.2 to 7.6 for the EAF segment and 6.7–7.2 for the KF and KOF segments.

Orijinal dilİngilizce
Makale numarası229819
Yayın durumuYayınlandı - 5 May 2023

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Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier B.V.


The authors would like to thank all participants who helped during field studies. This article was supported financially by the Coordinator of Scientific Research Projects (BAP) of Hitit University (project no. ODMYO19001.19.002 ) and Istanbul Technical University (project no. MGA-2019-42243 ). For GPS data processing, the GAMIT/GLOBK software developed by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) was used ( Herring et al., 2015a, 2015b ; King and Bock, 2002 ). The TDEFNODE software was used for block modeling ( McCaffrey, 2009 ). The GMT software was used to plot maps in this study ( Wessel et al., 2013 ). The global data set of active fault lines was obtained from the database of the GEM Global Active Faults project ( Styron and Pagani, 2020 ). The authors are grateful to editor and anonymous reviewers for their valuable contributions to this article.

FinansörlerFinansör numarası
Coordinator of Scientific Research Projects (BAP) of Hitit UniversityODMYO19001.19.002
Istanbul Teknik ÜniversitesiMGA-2019-42243

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