Predicting Transfer Passenger Numbers in Urban Rail Systems with Time Series

Urban rail systems are transport systems that are integrated within each other and with other types of public transport at transfer stations, enabling passengers to make their travels and transfers quickly and easily with their accessibility and integration. The waiting time for passengers who will transfer at transfer stations is an essential parameter affecting the choice of transport mode of passengers. In urban rail systems, it is not practically possible to synchronize train timetables at the expected level. In this case, the number of transfer passengers between lines becomes an important parameter in obtaining maximum efficiency from the synchronization of timetables. In urban rail systems, especially in big cities, there are changes in passenger numbers and transfer passenger numbers with the growth and increased use of urban rail systems. Moreover, transfer passenger numbers vary according to seasons, months and even days. Therefore, predicting the future transfer passenger numbers according to the current passenger number data is an important parameter for the synchronization study to provide more optimum solutions. Linear time series will be used in the study. The time series will be tested on sample lines selected from Metro Istanbul and Marmaray.