TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting Human Reliability for Shore-based LNG Bunkering Operation Process on Tanker Ships Using SLIM and Improved Z-numbers
AU - Tekeli, Murat Mert
AU - Arici, Seher Suendam
AU - Sezer, Sukru Ilke
AU - Akyuz, Emre
AU - Gardoni, Paolo
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Harbin Engineering University and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2024.
PY - 2024/12
Y1 - 2024/12
N2 - With the increasing utilization of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a marine fuel, the safety and reliability of shore-based LNG bunkering operations have become vital concerns. Human factors are crucial to the successful execution of these operations. However, predicting human reliability in such complex scenarios remains challenging. This paper focuses on the prediction of human reliability analysis (HRA) for shore-based LNG bunkering operations on tanker ships to address the aforementioned gap. Practical approaches to predicting HRA under the success likelihood index method (SLIM) and an improved Z-numbers approach are both adopted in this paper. SLIM provides a powerful tool to calculate human error, while the improved Z-numbers can address uncertainty and improve the reliability of qualitative expert judgments. Results show that the reliability of shore-based LNG bunkering operations is 0.861. In addition to its robust theoretical contribution, this research provides substantial practical contributions to LNG ship owners, ship superintendents, safety inspectors, and shore-based and ship crew for enhancing safety at the operational level and efficiency of shore-based LNG bunkering operations.
AB - With the increasing utilization of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a marine fuel, the safety and reliability of shore-based LNG bunkering operations have become vital concerns. Human factors are crucial to the successful execution of these operations. However, predicting human reliability in such complex scenarios remains challenging. This paper focuses on the prediction of human reliability analysis (HRA) for shore-based LNG bunkering operations on tanker ships to address the aforementioned gap. Practical approaches to predicting HRA under the success likelihood index method (SLIM) and an improved Z-numbers approach are both adopted in this paper. SLIM provides a powerful tool to calculate human error, while the improved Z-numbers can address uncertainty and improve the reliability of qualitative expert judgments. Results show that the reliability of shore-based LNG bunkering operations is 0.861. In addition to its robust theoretical contribution, this research provides substantial practical contributions to LNG ship owners, ship superintendents, safety inspectors, and shore-based and ship crew for enhancing safety at the operational level and efficiency of shore-based LNG bunkering operations.
KW - Human reliability
KW - Improved Z-numbers
KW - LNG bunkering operation
KW - Success likelihood index method
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85205377126&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s11804-024-00492-5
DO - 10.1007/s11804-024-00492-5
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85205377126
SN - 1671-9433
VL - 23
SP - 914
EP - 926
JO - Journal of Marine Science and Application
JF - Journal of Marine Science and Application
IS - 4
ER -