Optimization and analysis of a hydrogen supply chain in terms of cost, CO₂ emissions, and risk: the case of Turkey

The transportation sector, which is largely dependent on oil, is faced with many problems such as the danger of depletion of fossil fuels that are harmful to the environment. Moreover, the situations such as epidemics and war cause excessive fluctuations in oil prices. Therefore, there is a need for new solutions based on alternative energy sources for a sustainable transportation sector. Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEV) are one of the significant alternatives for an efficient, zero emissions and sustainable transportation system. Considering the potential investment in HFCEV technology, the need for a cost effective, green, and low risk Hydrogen Supply Chain (HSC) network infrastructure is inevitable. In this study, the HSC design of the Turkish transportation sector over a 25-year period (2026–2050) is investigated. The problem is modeled using a multi-period mixed integer linear programming (MIP) model. Three objectives are addresses: cost, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and safety risk. In order to consider the uncertainty in the hydrogen demand, five different scenarios are analyzed using fuzzy concept. There are four main results. First, unit hydrogen cost is found to be very high due to low demand and high capital cost in the initial period (2026–2031). Second, HSC network is established in a decentralized setting in all scenario solutions. The level of decentralization gets stronger over time and with increasing demand. Third, short-distance road transport is generally preferred for hydrogen transport. Fourth, since the aim is to minimize cost, CO₂ emissions, and risk level, a mixed production strategy based on cost-oriented SMR and zero-emissions-oriented Electrolysis (ELE) is observed in all scenarios.