Modelling urban dynamics via cellular automata

Modelling urban dynamics is mostly pronounced in metropolitan areas, where spatial information science could contribute to efforts of understanding the pattern and future characteristics. This paper discusses the past, current and future trend of land-use dynamics of European part of the Istanbul Metropolitan. Studies on urban growth modelling state that, there is no consensus on the selection method of appropriate urban growth parameters and transition rules, since they depend mainly on the examined urban structures, dynamics and environmental conditions. Hence, the main objective of this study is to define a framework and methodology for the urban growth model simulation of the Istanbul Metropolitan Area. Current methods available and applied were discussed. Landsat images retrieved 1984, 1995 and 2006 were used to determine the land-use information. The year 2017 was predicted using cellular automata. Cellular Automata has been used in many applications and is a dynamic spatial modelling method, which can be easily used to simulate the future development urban plans having 'what if' cases by decision makers. This study clearly shows that spatial information sciences served quite well in understanding about the dynamics of the urban development process and modelling the interaction between non-urban and urban land units for sustainable urbanization in a region.