Integrating multi-criteria decision analysis and risk mapping for European Union clean energy technology roadmaps

The European Union's clean energy transition requires not only scaling up low-emission technologies, but also managing strategic vulnerabilities such as import dependence and exposure to critical raw materials. This study develops a transparent, data-driven framework to help European decision-makers to prioritize clean energy technologies under competing policy objectives. It combines Analytic Hierarchy Process with multi-criteria decision methods to evaluate 20 key technologies across seven indicators capturing techno-economic performance, environmental impacts and strategic dependence. Two alternative strategic perspectives are explored: (i) a “strategic autonomy” perspective that gives higher weight to supply chain resilience, and (ii) an “environmental–and-maturity” perspective that prioritizes lifecycle emissions and technological readiness. Technologies are ranked using Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, and results are stress-tested through VIKOR, Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations, clustering analysis and Monte Carlo simulations of weight uncertainty. The analysis shows that heat pumps and onshore wind remain robust front-runners across perspectives, while advanced PV and battery technologies exhibit “high-performance–high-risk” profiles due to their strong dependence on critical raw materials and non-EU manufacturing. By contrast, some medium-performance technologies offer lower strategic dependence and can play a stabilising role in diversified portfolios. The paper derives a stepwise policy roadmap linking each indicator to EU instruments such as the Critical Raw Materials Act, REPowerEU and the Net Zero Industry Act. The proposed framework is intended as a screening tool for EU and national policymakers to align technology support portfolios with both decarbonization and resilience objectives.