Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey

Hakan Aksu; Hafzullah Aksoy; Mahmut Cetin; Mehmet Evrens; Said Genar Yaldiz; Omar Alsenjar; Isilsu Yildirim

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54

Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey

Hakan Aksu^*
, Hafzullah Aksoy
, Mahmut Cetin
, Mehmet Evrens
, Said Genar Yaldiz
, Omar Alsenjar
, Isilsu Yildirim

^*Bu çalışma için yazışmadan sorumlu yazar

İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü

Samsun University
Cukurova University
Yildiz Technical University
Istanbul Technical University

Araştırma sonucu: Kitap/Rapor/Konferans Bildirisinde Bölüm › Konferans katkısı › bilirkişi

Özet

This study aims to figure out the changes in extreme precipitation events and precipitation-induced maximum flows due to climate change in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. The Spearman's rho test was applied to the annual maximum daily precipitation and daily flow data to examine the temporal variation. The test results were interpreted at the 95% confidence interval, and no trend was detected. The annual maximum of daily precipitation projections of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios obtained at a resolution of 10 km² by downscaling from the MPI-ES-MR global climate model was used for statistical modeling of the projection period. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, the 24-h maximum precipitation for the projection period increased by 20–46% for the 100-year return period compared to the observation period in Trabzon, Rize, Bayburt, and Artvin meteorological stations. On the other hand, there was a decrease between 12 and 42% in Gümüşhane, Giresun, and Ordu stations. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, the change in the 100-year return level between the observation and projection periods was 46% for all stations except for Gümüshane, with a decrease of 8%.

Orijinal dil	İngilizce
Ana bilgisayar yayını başlığı	Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1
Editörler	Haroun Chenchouni, Helder I. Chaminé, Zhihua Zhang, Nabil Khelifi, Attila Ciner, Imran Ali, Mingjie Chen
Yayınlayan	Springer Nature
Sayfalar	257-259
Sayfa sayısı	3
ISBN (Basılı)	9783031431685
DOI'lar	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54
Yayın durumu	Yayınlandı - 2023
Etkinlik	1st International conference on Mediterranean Geosciences Union, MedGU 2021 - Istanbul, Türkiye Süre: 25 Kas 2021 → 28 Kas 2021

Yayın serisi

Adı	Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation
ISSN (Basılı)	2522-8714
ISSN (Elektronik)	2522-8722

???event.eventtypes.event.conference???

???event.eventtypes.event.conference???	1st International conference on Mediterranean Geosciences Union, MedGU 2021
Ülke/Bölge	Türkiye
Şehir	Istanbul
Periyot	25/11/21 → 28/11/21

Bibliyografik not

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Finansman

Acknowledgements This work was supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK), Project Number: 119Y361.

Finansörler	Finansör numarası
Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu	119Y361

BM SKH

Bu sonuç, aşağıdaki Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Hedefine/Hedeflerine katkıda bulunur

SKH 13 İklim Eylemi

Belgeye Erişim

10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54

Diğer Dosyalar ve Linkler

Link to publication in Scopus

Alıntı Yap

Aksu, H., Aksoy, H., Cetin, M., Evrens, M., Yaldiz, S. G., Alsenjar, O., & Yildirim, I. (2023). Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey. In H. Chenchouni, H. I. Chaminé, Z. Zhang, N. Khelifi, A. Ciner, I. Ali, & M. Chen (Eds.), Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1 (pp. 257-259). (Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation). Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54

Aksu, Hakan ; Aksoy, Hafzullah ; Cetin, Mahmut et al. / Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey. Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1. editör / Haroun Chenchouni ; Helder I. Chaminé ; Zhihua Zhang ; Nabil Khelifi ; Attila Ciner ; Imran Ali ; Mingjie Chen. Springer Nature, 2023. pp. 257-259 (Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation).

@inproceedings{0a2143807e364074b45aee0f96950517,

title = "Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey",

abstract = "This study aims to figure out the changes in extreme precipitation events and precipitation-induced maximum flows due to climate change in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. The Spearman's rho test was applied to the annual maximum daily precipitation and daily flow data to examine the temporal variation. The test results were interpreted at the 95\% confidence interval, and no trend was detected. The annual maximum of daily precipitation projections of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios obtained at a resolution of 10 km2 by downscaling from the MPI-ES-MR global climate model was used for statistical modeling of the projection period. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, the 24-h maximum precipitation for the projection period increased by 20–46\% for the 100-year return period compared to the observation period in Trabzon, Rize, Bayburt, and Artvin meteorological stations. On the other hand, there was a decrease between 12 and 42\% in G{\"u}m{\"u}{\c s}hane, Giresun, and Ordu stations. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, the change in the 100-year return level between the observation and projection periods was 46\% for all stations except for G{\"u}m{\"u}shane, with a decrease of 8\%.",

keywords = "Climate change scenario, East black sea, Extreme precipitation, Generalized extreme value distribution, Maximum flow",

author = "Hakan Aksu and Hafzullah Aksoy and Mahmut Cetin and Mehmet Evrens and Yaldiz, \{Said Genar\} and Omar Alsenjar and Isilsu Yildirim",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.; 1st International conference on Mediterranean Geosciences Union, MedGU 2021 ; Conference date: 25-11-2021 Through 28-11-2021",

year = "2023",

doi = "10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2\_54",

language = "English",

isbn = "9783031431685",

series = "Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation",

publisher = "Springer Nature",

pages = "257--259",

editor = "Haroun Chenchouni and Chamin{\'e}, \{Helder I.\} and Zhihua Zhang and Nabil Khelifi and Attila Ciner and Imran Ali and Mingjie Chen",

booktitle = "Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1",

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Aksu, H, Aksoy, H, Cetin, M, Evrens, M, Yaldiz, SG, Alsenjar, O & Yildirim, I 2023, Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey. in H Chenchouni, HI Chaminé, Z Zhang, N Khelifi, A Ciner, I Ali & M Chen (eds), Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1. Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation, Springer Nature, pp. 257-259, 1st International conference on Mediterranean Geosciences Union, MedGU 2021, Istanbul, Türkiye, 25/11/21. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54

Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey. / Aksu, Hakan; Aksoy, Hafzullah; Cetin, Mahmut et al.
Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1. ed. / Haroun Chenchouni; Helder I. Chaminé; Zhihua Zhang; Nabil Khelifi; Attila Ciner; Imran Ali; Mingjie Chen. Springer Nature, 2023. p. 257-259 (Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation).

Araştırma sonucu: Kitap/Rapor/Konferans Bildirisinde Bölüm › Konferans katkısı › bilirkişi

TY - GEN

T1 - Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey

AU - Aksu, Hakan

AU - Aksoy, Hafzullah

AU - Cetin, Mahmut

AU - Evrens, Mehmet

AU - Yaldiz, Said Genar

AU - Alsenjar, Omar

AU - Yildirim, Isilsu

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - This study aims to figure out the changes in extreme precipitation events and precipitation-induced maximum flows due to climate change in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. The Spearman's rho test was applied to the annual maximum daily precipitation and daily flow data to examine the temporal variation. The test results were interpreted at the 95% confidence interval, and no trend was detected. The annual maximum of daily precipitation projections of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios obtained at a resolution of 10 km2 by downscaling from the MPI-ES-MR global climate model was used for statistical modeling of the projection period. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, the 24-h maximum precipitation for the projection period increased by 20–46% for the 100-year return period compared to the observation period in Trabzon, Rize, Bayburt, and Artvin meteorological stations. On the other hand, there was a decrease between 12 and 42% in Gümüşhane, Giresun, and Ordu stations. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, the change in the 100-year return level between the observation and projection periods was 46% for all stations except for Gümüshane, with a decrease of 8%.

AB - This study aims to figure out the changes in extreme precipitation events and precipitation-induced maximum flows due to climate change in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. The Spearman's rho test was applied to the annual maximum daily precipitation and daily flow data to examine the temporal variation. The test results were interpreted at the 95% confidence interval, and no trend was detected. The annual maximum of daily precipitation projections of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios obtained at a resolution of 10 km2 by downscaling from the MPI-ES-MR global climate model was used for statistical modeling of the projection period. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, the 24-h maximum precipitation for the projection period increased by 20–46% for the 100-year return period compared to the observation period in Trabzon, Rize, Bayburt, and Artvin meteorological stations. On the other hand, there was a decrease between 12 and 42% in Gümüşhane, Giresun, and Ordu stations. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, the change in the 100-year return level between the observation and projection periods was 46% for all stations except for Gümüshane, with a decrease of 8%.

KW - Climate change scenario

KW - East black sea

KW - Extreme precipitation

KW - Generalized extreme value distribution

KW - Maximum flow

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85178522645

U2 - 10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54

DO - 10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:85178522645

SN - 9783031431685

T3 - Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation

SP - 257

EP - 259

BT - Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1

A2 - Chenchouni, Haroun

A2 - Chaminé, Helder I.

A2 - Zhang, Zhihua

A2 - Khelifi, Nabil

A2 - Ciner, Attila

A2 - Ali, Imran

A2 - Chen, Mingjie

PB - Springer Nature

T2 - 1st International conference on Mediterranean Geosciences Union, MedGU 2021

Y2 - 25 November 2021 through 28 November 2021

ER -

Aksu H, Aksoy H, Cetin M, Evrens M, Yaldiz SG, Alsenjar O et al. Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey. In Chenchouni H, Chaminé HI, Zhang Z, Khelifi N, Ciner A, Ali I, Chen M, editörler, Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1. Springer Nature. 2023. p. 257-259. (Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation). doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54

Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey

Özet

Yayın serisi

???event.eventtypes.event.conference???

Bibliyografik not

Finansman

BM SKH

Belgeye Erişim

Diğer Dosyalar ve Linkler

Parmak izi

Alıntı Yap