Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey

Hakan Aksu*, Hafzullah Aksoy, Mahmut Cetin, Mehmet Evrens, Said Genar Yaldiz, Omar Alsenjar, Isilsu Yildirim

*Bu çalışma için yazışmadan sorumlu yazar

Araştırma sonucu: ???type-name???Konferans katkısıbilirkişi

Özet

This study aims to figure out the changes in extreme precipitation events and precipitation-induced maximum flows due to climate change in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. The Spearman's rho test was applied to the annual maximum daily precipitation and daily flow data to examine the temporal variation. The test results were interpreted at the 95% confidence interval, and no trend was detected. The annual maximum of daily precipitation projections of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios obtained at a resolution of 10 km2 by downscaling from the MPI-ES-MR global climate model was used for statistical modeling of the projection period. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, the 24-h maximum precipitation for the projection period increased by 20–46% for the 100-year return period compared to the observation period in Trabzon, Rize, Bayburt, and Artvin meteorological stations. On the other hand, there was a decrease between 12 and 42% in Gümüşhane, Giresun, and Ordu stations. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, the change in the 100-year return level between the observation and projection periods was 46% for all stations except for Gümüshane, with a decrease of 8%.

Orijinal dilİngilizce
Ana bilgisayar yayını başlığıRecent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1
EditörlerHaroun Chenchouni, Helder I. Chaminé, Zhihua Zhang, Nabil Khelifi, Attila Ciner, Imran Ali, Mingjie Chen
YayınlayanSpringer Nature
Sayfalar257-259
Sayfa sayısı3
ISBN (Basılı)9783031431685
DOI'lar
Yayın durumuYayınlandı - 2023
Etkinlik1st International conference on Mediterranean Geosciences Union, MedGU 2021 - Istanbul, Turkey
Süre: 25 Kas 202128 Kas 2021

Yayın serisi

AdıAdvances in Science, Technology and Innovation
ISSN (Basılı)2522-8714
ISSN (Elektronik)2522-8722

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???event.eventtypes.event.conference???1st International conference on Mediterranean Geosciences Union, MedGU 2021
Ülke/BölgeTurkey
ŞehirIstanbul
Periyot25/11/2128/11/21

Bibliyografik not

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Finansman

Acknowledgements This work was supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK), Project Number: 119Y361.

FinansörlerFinansör numarası
Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu119Y361

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