Geodetic Constraints on Segment-Scale Slip Rates and Interseismic Coupling Along the Havran–Balıkesir Fault Zone, NW Anatolia, Türkiye

This study presents a new high-resolution GNSS-derived velocity field and the first internally consistent, segment-resolved block model for the Havran–Balıkesir Fault Zone (HBFZ) in western Anatolia. Inversion of the GNSS velocity field was performed using a dense network of 77 sites within a 3D elastic half-space framework to estimate fault slip rates and interseismic coupling. The results reveal that the HBFZ behaves as a kinematically heterogeneous fault system, with deformation systematically partitioned along strike. Block-modeling results indicate pronounced along-strike variations in interseismic coupling and slip-deficit accumulation. While the westernmost Havran segment is weakly coupled and accommodates limited accumulation, the Turplu and Gökçeyazı segments emerge as major strain-accumulation zones with high and laterally continuous slip-deficit rates. In particular, the Gökçeyazı segment exhibits slip-deficit rates of ~4–6 mm/yr and nearly two millennia of seismic quiescence, implying the potential for a future large-magnitude earthquake (Mw ~7.1–7.3). The strong agreement between GNSS-derived deformation patterns and independent geological and paleoseismological constraints suggests that this segment is currently in an advanced stage of the seismic cycle. These findings highlight the importance of segment-scale geodetic observations for seismic hazard assessment in northwestern Anatolia.