Gender and Household Food Expenditure as a Complex System: Evidence from Türkiye

Household food expenditure reflects not only income differences, but also how demographic, economic, and institutional factors interact within the household. This study examines household food expenditure in Türkiye from a systems perspective, with a particular focus on the role of gender in shaping economic vulnerability. Using microdata from the 2018 Household Budget Survey, the analysis employs a two-stage framework that combines Artificial Neural Networks and a Tree-Augmented Bayesian Network. In the first stage, non-linear relationships among household characteristics are identified and the most influential determinants of food expenditure shares are determined. In the second stage, a probabilistic system model is constructed to conduct counterfactual “what-if” simulations. The results show that household food expenditure emerges as a systemic outcome influenced by income, education, employment stability, savings capacity, and asset ownership, with gender playing a central role. Female-headed households—particularly those living alone and facing limited education and unstable employment—have a substantially higher probability of allocating a large share of their budget to food. These findings are consistent with Engel’s law and highlight the gendered nature of economic vulnerability. The study suggests that food security policies should address employment stability, human capital, and access to productive assets alongside income support.