Güncel Avrupa Sismik Tehlike ve Risk Modeliyle 23 Kasım 2022 Düzce Depreminin Değerlendirilmesi

Düzce province, which is affected by the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) with high seismicity, is a region with high earthquake hazard and risk. After the August 17, 1999 MW 7.6 Kocaeli earthquake, the tensile energy on the Düzce fault between Bolu and Düzce was released on November 12, 1999, resulting in the MW 7.2 Düzce earthquake. 23 years later, an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 5.9 occurred in this region on the KAFZ-Karadere Segment on 23.11.2022 with the epicenter in Düzce-Gölyaka. This earthquake, which was recorded 6.81 kilometers below the ground, was felt in a wide area from Istanbul and Ankara to Bolu, Sakarya, Kocaeli, Kütahya, Bilecik, Bursa, and Izmir. Light, medium and severe structural damage occurred in Gölyaka and Cumayeri districts and some villages close to the fault. In this study, the seismicity of Düzce province was evaluated by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using the Current European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20). November 23, 2022 MW 5.9 Gölyaka earthquake records of AFAD stations are evaluated together with the current seismic hazard model and design spectra. In the seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, low and medium storey reinforced concrete building classes in accordance with the old regulations and new regulations defined for Düzce province in the Current European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20) were taken into consideration. Seismic risk assessment for Düzce province based on seismic hazard analysis is performed by means of loss curves.