Evaluating the Influence of Sahara and Arabian Dust Intrusions and Climate Change on Turkish Air Quality: Insights from Satellite Observations and Statistical Analysis

Air quality plays a vital role in determining the livelihood and well-being of a society. Among outdoor pollutants, Particulate Matter (PM) poses significant health risks. Based on the “State of Global Air” report by the Health Effects Institute, Türkiye experienced over 50 age-standardized deaths per 100,000 people annually in 2019 due to exposure to high levels of particulate matter, a figure that is double the European Union’s average of 24.4 age-standardized deaths per 100,000 people. Transported dust from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is the primary natural source of PM in this region. This study aims to investigate the aerosol pollution in Türkiye from 2000 to 2022 by utilizing satellite-based retrieval products such as Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and ground-level PM₁₀ measurements from over 100 air quality stations. Machine Learning models and statistical methods such as Random Forest and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model were employed to model PM₁₀ concentration in the Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia regions of Türkiye over a selected period from 2014 to 2016. This timeframe coincided with significant dust events affecting the Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia regions of Türkiye. Among all applied methods, Random Forest performed the best in terms of fitting the regression line, with R, R² and RMSE values of 0.97, 0.93 and 17.90 μg/m³, respectively. Research examining also the link between drought and dust has revealed a direct correlation between the intensity of droughts and the levels of aerosols, suggesting that drought and desertification intensify air pollution by enhancing dust transportation.