TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimation of Traffic Incident Duration
T2 - A Comparative Study of Decision Tree Models
AU - Saracoglu, Abdulsamet
AU - Ozen, Halit
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals.
PY - 2020/10/1
Y1 - 2020/10/1
N2 - Unexpected events such as crashes, disabled vehicles, flat tires and spilled loads cause traffic congestion or extend the duration of the traffic congestion on the roadways. It is possible to reduce the effects of such incidents by implementing intelligent transportation systems solutions that require the estimation of the incident duration to identify well-fitted strategies. This paper presents a methodology to establish incident duration estimation models by utilizing decision tree models of CHAID, CART, C4.5 and LMT. For this study, the data contained traffic incidents that occurred on the Istanbul Trans European Motorway were obtained and separated into three groups according to duration by utilizing some studies about classification of traffic incidents. By using classified data, decision tree models of CHAID, CART, C4.5 and LMT were established and validated to estimate the incident duration. According to the results, although the models used different variables, the decision tree models of CHAID, CART and C4.5 have nearly the same prediction accuracy which is approximately 74%. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of decision tree model of LMT is 75.4% which is somewhat better than the others. However, C4.5 model required less number of parameters than the others, while its accuracy is the same with others.
AB - Unexpected events such as crashes, disabled vehicles, flat tires and spilled loads cause traffic congestion or extend the duration of the traffic congestion on the roadways. It is possible to reduce the effects of such incidents by implementing intelligent transportation systems solutions that require the estimation of the incident duration to identify well-fitted strategies. This paper presents a methodology to establish incident duration estimation models by utilizing decision tree models of CHAID, CART, C4.5 and LMT. For this study, the data contained traffic incidents that occurred on the Istanbul Trans European Motorway were obtained and separated into three groups according to duration by utilizing some studies about classification of traffic incidents. By using classified data, decision tree models of CHAID, CART, C4.5 and LMT were established and validated to estimate the incident duration. According to the results, although the models used different variables, the decision tree models of CHAID, CART and C4.5 have nearly the same prediction accuracy which is approximately 74%. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of decision tree model of LMT is 75.4% which is somewhat better than the others. However, C4.5 model required less number of parameters than the others, while its accuracy is the same with others.
KW - C4.5
KW - CART
KW - CHAID
KW - Decision tree
KW - LMT
KW - Traffic incident duration
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85085322719&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s13369-020-04615-2
DO - 10.1007/s13369-020-04615-2
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85085322719
SN - 2193-567X
VL - 45
SP - 8099
EP - 8110
JO - Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering
JF - Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering
IS - 10
ER -