Determining the relationship between zoning plans and urban development using remote sensing methods: A case study of Ankara

Major cities, due to continuous development, have always faced the risk of damage to natural structures. Urban planning processes should be designed to minimize harm to these natural structures or land cover. However, newly developed areas—though planned—can lead to an increase in other land use categories and cause greater-than-expected damage to the land cover due to cumulative effects. Remote sensing data can be effectively utilized to monitor and manage these processes. This research aims to reveal the relationship between zoning plans and urban development in the city of Ankara. The Land use / cover conditions and its temporal change in the Ivedik and OSTIM Organized Industrial Zones (OIZ) over 30-year period were mapped with use of satellite images. For this purpose, Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI satellite images from the years 1994, 2004, 2014, and 2024 were used. The Random Forest (RF) algorithm was used for land use and land cover (LULC) classification of each date and the classifications achieved over 80% overall accuracy and kappa accuracy. Then, a thematic change detection analysis was employed, which provided information about inter class transitions over the area within time. The findings indicate that construction has occurred over a wider area than anticipated in the zoning plans, and the rate of land change is faster than planned. These results underscore the necessity of increasing the utilization of satellite imagery in urban planning and establishing dynamic monitoring mechanisms.