Definition of the best probability distribution functions for annual minimum flows in the rivers of the Upper Euphrates River Basin, Turkey

Fatih Tosunoglu, Ercan Kahya

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Özet

In this study, it is aimed to define the most suitable probability distribution functions for modelling of annual minimum flows (AM7) data for the duration 7-day that obtained from daily streamflow data of the four gauge stations located in upper part of the Euphrates River. To achieve this purpose, ten widely used distributions, namely, Gamma, Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value, two parameter Lognormal, three parameter Lognormal, Logistic, LogLogistic, Normal, Pearson type-III and Weibull were fitted and compared. The maximum likelihood method was used to estimate parameters of the distributions. To select the most suitable distributions for AM7 series of the stations, five widely used model selection criterions (namely, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Anderson Darling (AD), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Cramér-von Mises (CvM) and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) tests) were applied. Based on these tests/criteria, Gamma, Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value, three parameter Lognormal, Pearson type-III were found to be the most suitable distributions for modelling data series. Finally, using the best fitted distributions that derived from these model selection methods, minimum flow estimates for various return periods (e.g. 10, 25, 50, 100, 200 and 500 years) were performed and results were discussed.

Orijinal dilİngilizce
Makale numarası012166
DergiIOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering
Hacim737
Basın numarası1
DOI'lar
Yayın durumuYayınlandı - 5 Mar 2020
Etkinlik4th International Conference on Buildings, Construction and Environmental Engineering, BCEE4 2019 - Istanbul, Turkey
Süre: 7 Eki 20199 Eki 2019

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Publisher Copyright:
© Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

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