Deep assessment methodology using fractional calculus on mathematical modeling and prediction of gross domestic product per capita of countries

Ertucgrul Karaçuha, Vasil Tabatadze, Kamil Karaçuha*, Nisa Özge Önal, Esra Ergün

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11 Atıf (Scopus)

Özet

In this study, a new approach for time series modeling and prediction, "deep assessment methodology," is proposed and the performance is reported on modeling and prediction for upcoming years of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The proposed methodology expresses a function with the finite summation of its previous values and derivatives combining fractional calculus and the Least Square Method to find unknown coefficients. The dataset of GDP per capita used in this study includes nine countries (Brazil, China, India, Italy, Japan, the UK, the USA, Spain and Turkey) and the European Union. The modeling performance of the proposed model is compared with the Polynomial model and the Fractional model and prediction performance is compared to a special type of neural network, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), that used for time series. Results show that using Deep Assessment Methodology yields promising modeling and prediction results for GDP per capita. The proposed method is outperforming Polynomial model and Fractional model by 1.538% and by 1.899% average error rates, respectively. We also show that Deep Assessment Method (DAM) is superior to plain LSTM on prediction for upcoming GDP per capita values by 1.21% average error.

Orijinal dilİngilizce
Makale numarası633
DergiMathematics
Hacim8
Basın numarası4
DOI'lar
Yayın durumuYayınlandı - 1 Nis 2020

Bibliyografik not

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 by the authors.

Finansman

This research was funded by Istanbul Technical University (ITU) Vodafone Future Lab with the grant number ITUVF20180901P11. Funding: This research was funded by Istanbul Technical University (ITU) Vodafone Future Lab with the grant number ITUVF20180901P11.

FinansörlerFinansör numarası
Vodafone Future Lab
İTÜ Vodafone Future LabITUVF20180901P11
Istanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

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