Decarbonization of cement production in Türkiye: a techno-economic and risk analysis of CO₂ capture technologies

Decarbonizing the cement industry is essential for achieving global climate targets. Carbon capture technologies are widely recognized as key solutions, but their economic feasibility is highly sensitive to volatile carbon prices, energy costs, and policy-driven market uncertainties. This study presents a risk-adjusted techno-economic assessment of three major CO₂ capture technologies—monoethanolamine (MEA) absorption, calcium looping (CaL), and oxy-fuel combustion—applied to a representative cement production facility. A two-layer modelling framework is developed that integrates deterministic techno-economic analysis with stochastic financial modelling. Monte Carlo simulations combined with Geometric Brownian Motion are employed to represent dynamic uncertainty in carbon and energy prices over the project lifetime. Key performance indicators, including levelized cost of CO₂ capture (LCOC), net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and payback period, are evaluated under both deterministic and probabilistic conditions. Results show that oxy-fuel combustion achieves the lowest capture cost (63.6 €/tCO₂) but exhibits weaker financial performance due to high capital intensity and longer payback periods. MEA and CaL technologies demonstrate stronger and more resilient investment performance, with IRRs exceeding 30% and shorter payback periods under most simulated scenarios. Stochastic analysis indicates that MEA and CaL remain economically robust across a wide range of carbon and energy price trajectories, while oxy-fuel systems are more sensitive to market volatility. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating financial risk and policy uncertainty into techno-economic assessments and provide a transferable decision-support framework for industrial decarbonization planning in cement and other energy-intensive sectors.