Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap

Ufuk Beyaztas; Bugrayhan Bickici Arikan; Beste Hamiye Beyaztas; Ercan Kahya

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021

Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap

Ufuk Beyaztas, Bugrayhan Bickici Arikan^*, Beste Hamiye Beyaztas, Ercan Kahya

^*Bu çalışma için yazışmadan sorumlu yazar

İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü

Araştırma sonucu: Dergiye katkı › Makale › bilirkişi

28 Atıf (Scopus)

Özet

In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values.

Orijinal dil	İngilizce
Sayfa (başlangıç-bitiş)	461-470
Sayfa sayısı	10
Dergi	Journal of Hydrology
Hacim	559
DOI'lar	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021
Yayın durumu	Yayınlandı - Nis 2018

Bibliyografik not

Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Elsevier B.V.

Finansman

We thank two anonymous referees for valuable suggestions and comments, which helped us improve the manuscrip significantly. We would like to acknowledge the support of TUBITAK (Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) for financial support. The authors wish to thank to MGM (Turkish State Meteorological Service) authorities for providing data.

Finansörler	Finansör numarası
TUBITAK
Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştirma Kurumu

Belgeye Erişim

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021

Diğer Dosyalar ve Linkler

Link to publication in Scopus

Alıntı Yap

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title = "Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap",

abstract = "In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values.",

keywords = "Bootstrap, Drought, Konya basin, PDSI, Prediction",

author = "Ufuk Beyaztas and {Bickici Arikan}, Bugrayhan and Beyaztas, {Beste Hamiye} and Ercan Kahya",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 Elsevier B.V.",

year = "2018",

month = apr,

doi = "10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021",

language = "English",

volume = "559",

pages = "461--470",

journal = "Journal of Hydrology",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap

AU - Beyaztas, Ufuk

AU - Bickici Arikan, Bugrayhan

AU - Beyaztas, Beste Hamiye

AU - Kahya, Ercan

PY - 2018/4

Y1 - 2018/4

N2 - In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values.

AB - In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values.

KW - Bootstrap

KW - Drought

KW - Konya basin

KW - PDSI

KW - Prediction

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85042692516&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021

DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85042692516

SN - 0022-1694

VL - 559

SP - 461

EP - 470

JO - Journal of Hydrology

JF - Journal of Hydrology

ER -

Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap

Özet

Bibliyografik not

Finansman

Belgeye Erişim

Diğer Dosyalar ve Linkler

Parmak izi

Alıntı Yap