Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey

Ali Danandeh Mehr*, Ali Unal Sorman, Ercan Kahya, Mahdi Hesami Afshar

*Bu çalışma için yazışmadan sorumlu yazar

Araştırma sonucu: ???type-name???Makalebilirkişi

103 Atıf (Scopus)

Özet

Using regionally downscaled and adjusted outputs of three global climate models (GCMs), meteorological drought analysis was accomplished across Ankara, the capital city of Turkey. To this end, standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were projected under (representative concentration pathway) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios. In general, our results show that Ankara experienced six severe and two extreme drought events during the reference period, 1971–2000. However, the projections indicate fewer drought events for the near-future period of 2016–2040, with no potential extreme drought events. While the RCP4.5 scenario showed that dry spells will be dominant in the second half of the near-future period, the RCP8.5 scenario projected that dry spells will be evenly distributed during the entire near-future period.

Orijinal dilİngilizce
Sayfa (başlangıç-bitiş)254-268
Sayfa sayısı15
DergiHydrological Sciences Journal
Hacim65
Basın numarası2
DOI'lar
Yayın durumuYayınlandı - 25 Oca 2020

Bibliyografik not

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019, © 2019 IAHS.

Finansman

The authors would like to thank the General Directorate of Meteorology (MGM) of Turkey for providing the meteorological datasets. We are also grateful to Dr Anne Van Loon (Associate Editor) and two reviewers for providing constructive comments on the initial version of this paper.

FinansörlerFinansör numarası
General Directorate of Meteorology
MGM Mirage Voice Foundation

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