Assessment of future renewable energy use and CO₂ emissions of Türkiye and other countries in terms of climate targets of international agreements: An estimate with anfis

Global climate change is largely driven by increasing fossil fuel use and related emissions. The largest contributors include the United States, China, the European Union, and India, which together account for a significant share of global emissions. International agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol (2009) and the Paris Climate Agreement (2016) aim to reduce emissions and promote renewable energy use; however, they impose similar targets on countries with different energy structures and development levels. this study examines changes in renewable energy shares and co₂ emissions (ce) for selected countries and regions. using three input variables and one output variable commonly adopted in the literature, projections for the 2025–2030 period are obtained with the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The results indicate that Türkiye increases its renewable electricity share from 35% in 2021 to 50% in 2030, while reducing emissions from 12% to 6%. Similar but less pronounced trends are observed in the European Union and the United States. In contrast, India shows an increase in emissions with limited improvement in renewable energy use, whereas China exhibits moderate growth in both indicators. Overall, the findings suggest that while some regions align with international targets, others remain misaligned. Accordingly, defining country-specific targets based on emission levels and renewable energy capacity may lead to more effective and realistic policy outcomes.