Annual flow duration curve model for ungauged basins

A flow duration curve (FDC) plots the percentage of time that flow in a stream is equal to or exceeding a given value. In a gauged basin, it is obtained by sorting the observed flow from the largest to the smallest, and plotting against the corresponding exceedance probability. At ungauged basins where no data exist, the need for developing empirical methods emerges. This study aims at developing an FDC model for ungauged basins. The model is based on the normalized nondimensional annual mean flow quantiles. The annual mean flow is empirically calculated by a regression equation that takes drainage area and annual precipitation as input. Slope of the channel is additionally considered in the regression, however no better performance is achieved. Seyhan and Ceyhan basins in the Mediterranean region in southern Turkey are chosen as the study area. Data from 109 gauging stations are used for the calibration and validation of the model. Gauging stations on the tributaries are studied with a view to limiting anthropogenic activities on the rivers. Results of the application are found so promising that the model can be considered a good foundation for the development of FDCs at ungauged basins.