Analysing human error contribution to ship collision risk in congested waters under the evidential reasoning SPAR-H extended fault tree analysis

Esma Uflaz*, Emre Akyuz, Ozcan Arslan, Paolo Gardoni, Osman Turan, Muhammet Aydin

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4 Atıf (Scopus)

Özet

Human error plays a crucial role in maritime transportation risk analysis, as a significant percentage of accidents, including collisions, groundings, capsizing, fires, and explosions, can be attributed to human errors. However, obtaining a dataset that quantifies human error probabilities for maritime risk analysis is challenging due to commercial constraints. To address this issue, this paper proposes a conceptual framework that integrates evidential reasoning (ER) and the standardized plant analysis risk-human reliability analysis (SPAR-H) method to quantify human errors, while employing fault tree analysis (FTA) to predict risk. The specific focus of this study is ship collision risk in congested waters, which serves as a demonstration case to showcase the proposed method and illustrate a detailed analysis of collision risk. The findings reveal that “inadequate watchkeeping due to sole lookout”, “improper RADAR monitoring”, and “ineffective execution of COLREG-related actions” are the most significant human errors contributing to collision risk in congested waters. The outcomes of this research provide valuable insights for ship owners, safety professionals, ship masters, inspectors, and researchers in the maritime industry. The findings can assist in minimizing collision risk and improving navigational safety in congested waters.

Orijinal dilİngilizce
Makale numarası115758
DergiOcean Engineering
Hacim287
DOI'lar
Yayın durumuYayınlandı - 1 Kas 2023

Bibliyografik not

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier Ltd

Finansman

This article is partly produced from Ph.D. thesis research entitled “Simulator-Based Evaluation of Human Response in Emergencies” which has been executed in a Ph.D. Program in Maritime Transportation Engineering of Graduate School in Istanbul Technical University. This article is partly produced from the Horizon 2020 project entitled “Strengthening synergies between Aviation and maritime in the area of human Factors toward achieving more Efficient and resilient MODE of transportation (SAFEMODE)” (Project Grant no: N°814961) and has received funding from the EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program. This study is partly supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye, Türkiye. (TUBITAK 2214-A, 2020/1) – International Research Fellowship Programme for Ph.D. Students [Application number: 1059B142000163]. This study is partly supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye , Türkiye. (TUBITAK 2214-A, 2020/1) – International Research Fellowship Programme for Ph.D. Students [Application number: 1059B142000163].

FinansörlerFinansör numarası
EU's Horizon 2020
Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu2020/1, 1059B142000163, 2214-A
Istanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
Horizon 2020814961

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