An integrated CREAM and Dempster–Shafer (D-S) evidence theory for improving human reliability in maritime search and rescue (SAR)

Human reliability plays a critical role in the success of the maritime Search and Rescue (SAR) operation, where decisions under time pressure and uncertainty may have life-saving implications. This article proposes an integrated conceptual framework combining the CREAM (Cognitive reliability and error analysis method) with the Dempster–Shafer (D-S) evidence theory to improve operational safety and human reliability in the SAR operation. Besides its robust theoretical background, the CREAM provides a structured approach to evaluate cognitive errors based on performance shaping factors (PSFs), whilst D-S theory offers a robust mathematical tool for handling uncertainty and synthesizing diverse sources of evidence. To demonstrate the capability of the proposed method to quantify human reliability, a simulated maritime SAR operation scenario is applied. The findings of the article show that the human reliability for the maritime SAR operation is 8.75E-01. Also, it reveals that the proposed approach provides more nuanced and reliable assessments compared to conventional CREAM, offering decision support for training, operational planning, and adaptive system design in SAR missions. This work contributes to the advancement of human-centered risk assessment methodologies in safety-critical maritime domains.