An Integrated Bayesian Risk Model for Coastal Flow Slides Using 3-D Hydrodynamic Transport and Monte Carlo Simulation

Ahmet Durap*, Can Elmar Balas, Şevket Çokgör, Egemen Ander Balas

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2 Atıf (Scopus)


The literature suggests two forms of flow slides: breaching and liquefaction. Both forms of failure have comparable ultimate circumstances, but the progression and sand movement mechanisms of breaching failure diverge from those of liquefaction. The first type, breaching, occurs in densely packed sand and is characterized by slow sand grain discharge throughout the dilation of the failing soil particles and negative excess pore pressures. The latter form, known as liquefaction, is the process by which a mass of soil abruptly begins to behave like a flowing liquid, and as a result, it can flow out across overly mild slopes. The process begins in compacted sand and is linked to positive surplus pore water pressures that are caused by the compaction of the sand. Despite the available literature on flow slide failures, our understanding of the mechanisms involved remains limited. Since flow slides often begin below the water surface, they can go undetected until the collapse reaches the bank above ground. The complexity of flow slides requires the use of cutting-edge technological instruments, diving equipment, advanced risk assessment, and a variety of noteworthy probabilistic and sensitivity analyses. Hence, we developed a new sensitivity index to identify the risk of breach failure and vulnerable coastal areas to this risk. In addition, we developed a sophisticated hybrid model that allows for all possibilities of flow slides in sync with random variables used in this new sensitivity index. In this new hybrid model, three distinctive models exist. The 3D Hydrodynamic Model addresses waves, wind, current, climate change, and sediment transport. The Monte Carlo Simulation is responsible for sensitivity analysis, and the Bayesian Network focuses on joint probabilities of coastal flow slide parameters of this new index that incorporates all environmental parameters, including climate change. With the assistance of these three models, researchers aim to: (a) expand the application scope by presenting a method on coastal flow slides; (b) consider different particle diameters corresponding to critical angle slope failure; (c) analyze variables that can play a pivotal role in the flow slides; and (d) present a methodology for coupling coastal flow slide projections with reliable outcomes. The hybrid model incorporates random variables of retrogressive breach failures, and the new risk index considers their ranges to control the simulation. The use of such a hybrid model and risk index offers a robust and computationally efficient approach to evaluating coastal flow slides.

Orijinal dilİngilizce
Makale numarası943
DergiJournal of Marine Science and Engineering
Basın numarası5
Yayın durumuYayınlandı - May 2023

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© 2023 by the authors.

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