TY - GEN
T1 - Aggregating forecasts to obtain fuzzy demands
AU - Kabak, Özgür
AU - Ülengin, Füsun
PY - 2008
Y1 - 2008
N2 - There are several studies in the literature that assumes fuzzy demands in supply chain or production planning models but most of them do not mention about how to derive the fuzzy demands from statistical and judgmental forecasts. In this study we propose a methodology to aggregate the forecasts coming based on different sources; namely statistical methods as well as the experts judgments, and to obtain an aggregated demand forecast that is represented by a possibilistic distribution. Results of the statistical and judgmental forecasts are represented by triangular possibilistic distributions. Subsequently, those results are combined by using weights of each input forecast. An illustrative example is also provided.
AB - There are several studies in the literature that assumes fuzzy demands in supply chain or production planning models but most of them do not mention about how to derive the fuzzy demands from statistical and judgmental forecasts. In this study we propose a methodology to aggregate the forecasts coming based on different sources; namely statistical methods as well as the experts judgments, and to obtain an aggregated demand forecast that is represented by a possibilistic distribution. Results of the statistical and judgmental forecasts are represented by triangular possibilistic distributions. Subsequently, those results are combined by using weights of each input forecast. An illustrative example is also provided.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=58049149875&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1142/9789812799470_0012
DO - 10.1142/9789812799470_0012
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:58049149875
SN - 981279946X
SN - 9789812799463
T3 - World Scientific Proceedings Series on Computer Engineering and Information Science 1; Computational Intelligence in Decision and Control - Proceedings of the 8th International FLINS Conference
SP - 73
EP - 78
BT - World Scientific Proceedings Series on Computer Engineering and Information Science 1; Computational Intelligence in Decision and Control - Proceedings of the 8th International FLINS Conference
PB - World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte Ltd
T2 - Computational Intelligence in Decision and Control - 8th International FLINS Conference
Y2 - 21 September 2008 through 24 September 2008
ER -