Addressing, targeting and tackling energy poverty under possible energy efficiency obligation scheme in Türkiye

Addressing energy poverty (EP) has become a requirement in the design of modern energy efficiency mechanisms, particularly under Energy Efficiency Obligation Schemes (EEOS), as reflected in the 2023 recast European Union Energy Efficiency Directive. In this context, Türkiye's plan to introduce an EEOS by 2027 offers a strategic opportunity to incorporate social targeting into energy efficiency policy. Yet, the absence of a systematic methodology for identifying energy-poor households remains a key challenge. This study presents a data-driven and multidimensional targeting framework that integrates structural inefficiencies, financial vulnerability, and regional disparities. Using 2023 microdata from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions, the methodology begins by filtering households based on housing-related inefficiencies. A custom Eligibility Index is then constructed using carefully selected financial difficulty indicators, with indicator weights assigned through Multiple Correspondence Analysis. To segment households without relying on arbitrary thresholds, a k-prototypes clustering algorithm is applied, yielding three distinct groups: Priority Energy-Poor, At-Risk, and Regular. Among Türkiye's estimated 15 million inefficient households, 2.25 million are identified as Priority Energy-Poor, requiring fully subsidised interventions under EEOS. At-Risk households represent an additional 4.5 million and would benefit from preventive support. The remaining 8.25 million Regular households could be reached through co-financing schemes. The spatial distribution of these groups reveals significant regional inequality, emphasizing the need for geographically adaptive policies. The proposed methodology offers a replicable framework for socially inclusive EEOS implementation and highlights the urgent need to expand national data systems to support evidence-based energy efficiency planning.