A stochastic assessment for oil contamination probability: A case study of the Bosphorus

Şehriban Saçu*, Olgay Şen, Tarkan Erdik

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12 Atıf (Scopus)


The Bosphorus is one of the busiest shipping lanes globally as it is the only maritime route for Black Sea countries. Every year about 50,000 ships sail through this lane. Hence, it is necessary to develop emergency response planning strategies due to its high vessel passage rate, distinguished geometry, and delicate hydrodynamics that exhibit two layer stratified flow and exchange water mass between the adjacent seas. In this study, a 3D hydrodynamic model of the Bosphorus is established to simulate oil spill scenarios for improving preparedness for an oil spill event. A stochastic approach is followed to identify oil contamination probability maps for four different ensembles considering two different oil types and two meteo-oceanographic conditions. The results highlight the importance of using different meteo-oceanographic conditions, as probability maps regarding different meteo-oceanographic conditions show large variability. The suggested response strategies can be used to manage oil spill emergencies in the Bosporus more efficiently.

Orijinal dilİngilizce
Makale numarası109064
DergiOcean Engineering
Yayın durumuYayınlandı - 1 Tem 2021

Bibliyografik not

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd


This study was supported by Istanbul Technical University Scientific Research Project Coordination Unit (ITU BAP) with grant number 42543. The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive and thoughtful comments on our manuscript which helped us to improve it substantially.

FinansörlerFinansör numarası
ITU BAP42543
Istanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

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