A Fuzzy Measure Based Approach to Scenario Evaluation

Ozgur Yanmaz*, Umut Asan

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Özet

Scenario planning is a strategic planning tool in which alternative futures are explored and strategies are developed in accordance with these futures. Scenarios, which are combinations of factors relevant to the problem, represent alternative futures. As the number of factors increases, the number of scenarios increases exponentially. Thus, the scenario planning process becomes highly complex and it is hard to develop appropriate strategies up to the numerous scenarios. To handle this problem, various criteria are defined in the literature to measure the quality of the scenarios and reduce their number accordingly. However, in these studies, scenarios are evaluated with respect to each criterion separately and joint (i.e. interaction) effects of factors are ignored. To address these issues, this study proposes a fuzzy measure based approach to consider more than one criterion simultaneously and the interaction between factors. Accordingly, more effective solutions will be created in order to obtain a high quality and reliable scenario set to be transformed into strategies. The applicability and effectiveness of the suggested method are examined by an example.

Orijinal dilİngilizce
Ana bilgisayar yayını başlığıIntelligent and Fuzzy Techniques for Emerging Conditions and Digital Transformation - Proceedings of the INFUS 2021 Conference
EditörlerCengiz Kahraman, Selcuk Cebi, Sezi Cevik Onar, Basar Oztaysi, A. Cagri Tolga, Irem Ucal Sari
YayınlayanSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Sayfalar813-819
Sayfa sayısı7
ISBN (Basılı)9783030856250
DOI'lar
Yayın durumuYayınlandı - 2022
EtkinlikInternational Conference on Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, INFUS 2021 - Istanbul, Turkey
Süre: 24 Ağu 202126 Ağu 2021

Yayın serisi

AdıLecture Notes in Networks and Systems
Hacim307
ISSN (Basılı)2367-3370
ISSN (Elektronik)2367-3389

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???event.eventtypes.event.conference???International Conference on Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, INFUS 2021
Ülke/BölgeTurkey
ŞehirIstanbul
Periyot24/08/2126/08/21

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Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

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