A combined seasonal ARIMA and ANN model for improved results in electricity spot price forecasting: Case study in Turkey

Avni Ozozen, Gulgun Kayakutlu, Marcel Ketterer, Ozgur Kayalica

Araştırma sonucu: Kitap/Rapor/Konferans Bildirisinde BölümKonferans katkısıbilirkişi

29 Atıf (Scopus)

Özet

Developing countries are trying to improve the competitiveness of the energy markets with continuous liberalization. This makes the market highly sensitive. Every player in the market has a greater need to know about the smallest change in the market. Hence, ability to see what is ahead is a valuable advantage to make the right move. A time series forecasting with the smallest errors would be a powerful tool for the energy producers. This paper proposes combined methodology in time series forecasting. Generally accepted and widely used ARIMA and ANN with backpropagation learning are combined. The methodology is implemented for the day-ahead Turkish power market. It is observed that the proposed methodology gives results with reduced errors. The achievements are compared with conventional use of both ARIMA and ANN.

Orijinal dilİngilizce
Ana bilgisayar yayını başlığıPICMET 2016 - Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology
Ana bilgisayar yayını alt yazısıTechnology Management For Social Innovation, Proceedings
EditörlerTimothy R. Anderson, Dundar F. Kocaoglu, Kiyoshi Niwa, Gary Perman, Dilek Cetindamar Kozanoglu, Tugrul U. Daim
YayınlayanInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Sayfalar2681-2690
Sayfa sayısı10
ISBN (Elektronik)9781509035953
DOI'lar
Yayın durumuYayınlandı - 4 Oca 2017
Etkinlik2016 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology, PICMET 2016 - Honolulu, United States
Süre: 4 Eyl 20168 Eyl 2016

Yayın serisi

AdıPICMET 2016 - Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology: Technology Management For Social Innovation, Proceedings

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???event.eventtypes.event.conference???2016 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology, PICMET 2016
Ülke/BölgeUnited States
ŞehirHonolulu
Periyot4/09/168/09/16

Bibliyografik not

Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology, Inc.

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