A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey

Şule Önsel Şahin; Füsun Ülengin; Burç Ülengin

doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2005.06.036

A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey

Şule Önsel Şahin
, Füsun Ülengin^*
, Burç Ülengin

^*Bu çalışma için yazışmadan sorumlu yazar

İşletme Mühendisliği Bölümü

Dogus University

Araştırma çıktısı: Dergi yayını › Makale › Hakem

19 Atıf (Scopus)

Özet

This paper proposes the use of Bayesian Causal Maps (BCM's) to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. In this study, a model of inflation is initially structured using a cognitive mapping technique; the dependent probabilities of the concepts are then calculated based on the detailed analysis of past data. Finally, a BCM is used to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. As a result, it will be possible to see the structure of the inflation model and to understand the basic consequences of any strategic change that may occur in the system.

Orijinal dil	İngilizce
Sayfa (başlangıç-bitiş)	1268-1284
Sayfa sayısı	17
Dergi	European Journal of Operational Research
Hacim	175
Basın numarası	2
DOI'lar	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2005.06.036
Yayın durumu	Yayınlandı - 1 Ara 2006

Belgeye Erişim

10.1016/j.ejor.2005.06.036

Diğer Dosyalar ve Linkler

Link to publication in Scopus

Alıntı Yap

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title = "A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey",

abstract = "This paper proposes the use of Bayesian Causal Maps (BCM's) to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. In this study, a model of inflation is initially structured using a cognitive mapping technique; the dependent probabilities of the concepts are then calculated based on the detailed analysis of past data. Finally, a BCM is used to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. As a result, it will be possible to see the structure of the inflation model and to understand the basic consequences of any strategic change that may occur in the system.",

keywords = "Bayesian causal map, Cognitive mapping, Economics, Forecasting, Turkish Inflation",

author = "{\c S}ahin, \{{\c S}ule {\"O}nsel\} and F{\"u}sun {\"U}lengin and Bur{\c c} {\"U}lengin",

year = "2006",

month = dec,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1016/j.ejor.2005.06.036",

language = "English",

volume = "175",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis

T2 - The case of Turkey

AU - Şahin, Şule Önsel

AU - Ülengin, Füsun

AU - Ülengin, Burç

PY - 2006/12/1

Y1 - 2006/12/1

N2 - This paper proposes the use of Bayesian Causal Maps (BCM's) to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. In this study, a model of inflation is initially structured using a cognitive mapping technique; the dependent probabilities of the concepts are then calculated based on the detailed analysis of past data. Finally, a BCM is used to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. As a result, it will be possible to see the structure of the inflation model and to understand the basic consequences of any strategic change that may occur in the system.

AB - This paper proposes the use of Bayesian Causal Maps (BCM's) to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. In this study, a model of inflation is initially structured using a cognitive mapping technique; the dependent probabilities of the concepts are then calculated based on the detailed analysis of past data. Finally, a BCM is used to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. As a result, it will be possible to see the structure of the inflation model and to understand the basic consequences of any strategic change that may occur in the system.

KW - Bayesian causal map

KW - Cognitive mapping

KW - Economics

KW - Forecasting

KW - Turkish Inflation

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/33748436852

U2 - 10.1016/j.ejor.2005.06.036

DO - 10.1016/j.ejor.2005.06.036

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:33748436852

SN - 0377-2217

VL - 175

SP - 1268

EP - 1284

JO - European Journal of Operational Research

JF - European Journal of Operational Research

IS - 2

ER -

A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey

Özet

Belgeye Erişim

Diğer Dosyalar ve Linkler

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Alıntı Yap