Urban regeneration in response to natural disasters: Insights from the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes

Urban regeneration has been promoted as a key strategy for disaster risk reduction, yet its effectiveness during major natural disasters remains under-evaluated. This study addresses the central problem of assessing whether urban regeneration implementations in designated at-risk areas effectively mitigated the impacts of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes in Türkiye. Despite extensive urban regeneration policies under Disaster Law No. 6306, there is a notable gap in empirical research evaluating their real-world performance during significant seismic events. To fill this gap, we conducted an empirical analysis of 12 at-risk areas across 11 provinces affected by the earthquakes. Utilizing satellite imagery, regional damage proxy maps, and spatial data analysis with ArcGIS Pro, we compared pre- and post-earthquake conditions to analyze the resilience of these areas. Our results reveal a dichotomy: regenerated at-risk areas (#5, #7, #11, #12) exhibited significantly lower damage, indicating enhanced physical resilience through effective interventions. In contrast, some non-regenerated at-risk areas (#1, #9) suffered severe damage, highlighting vulnerabilities due to delayed implementations. On the other hand, other non-regenerated at-risk areas (#2, #3, #4, #6, #8, #10) experienced minimal damage, suggesting misalignment between designated risks and actual vulnerabilities. Key findings underscore the necessity for accelerating urban regeneration processes and conducting detailed risk assessments to accurately designate at-risk areas. Practical implications include policy recommendations for refining legal frameworks, establishing clear scientific standards for risk evaluation, and promoting genuine citizen participation to enhance urban resilience. This study provides novel empirical evidence on the effectiveness of urban regeneration in disaster mitigation, offering valuable insights for policymakers and urban planners aiming to strengthen the resilience of urban environments against future natural disasters.