Unlocking Valuation Puzzle: Analysis of 2023 Borsa Istanbul IPOs Using Triangular Spherical Fuzzy Sets and Genetic Algorithm

Purpose: The study aims to establish a correlation between the valuation potential of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) and a company’s enduring competitive advantage. It explores this connection by analyzing microeconomic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and corporate dimensions within the financial statements of 42 IPOs listed on the Turkiye Stock Exchange: Borsa Istanbul in 2023 over a three-year period. Design/Methodology/Approach: Employing a novel Triangular Spherical Fuzzy Sets approach, the study assesses the significance of these KPIs and corporate dimensions. This methodology accommodates imprecise and vague data, providing a comprehensive understanding of the indicators. Over three years financial statements, the study involves consultation with three experts to assign importance scores to each indicator. These scores contribute to calculating cumulative scores for the 42 IPOs, subsequently ranking them based on their valuation potential and comparing the theoretical framework with actual valuation performance. A novel ranked space method with genetic algorithm has been applied as a robustness test, confirming the validity of the framework. Findings: The study’s results reveal that the research framework developed for the Borsa Istanbul 2023 IPOs may stand as a reliable indicator for long-term IPO performance. Notably, the framework’s predictive capacity is observable within a period of less than one year. These findings underscore its value to finance sector stakeholders, empowering investors and analysts with robust decision-making tools. Originality: This research contributes to the field by utilizing a novel Triangular Spherical Fuzzy Sets approach, providing a comprehensive analysis of microeconomic KPIs and corporate dimensions in evaluating IPO valuation potential. The integration of experts’ opinions in the assessment process and the framework’s remarkable predictive power within a short timeframe underscore the originality and applicability of the study’s methodology. Furthermore, the introduction of a novel ranked space method, complemented by a Genetic Algorithm, presents a fresh perspective on measuring IPO valuation potential Research limitations / implications: The study focuses on the 2023 Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in response to significant shifts in macro trends within the Turkish financial market. These shifts have notably steered investors away from cryptocurrency and towards IPOs, as evidenced by a substantial increase in personal stock exchange investors. Specifically, there was a surge from 3.34 million to 8.32