The scenario analysis on CO2 emission mitigation potential in the Turkish electricity sector: 2006-2030

Betül özer; Erdem Görgün; Selahattin Incecik

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2012.10.059

The scenario analysis on CO₂ emission mitigation potential in the Turkish electricity sector: 2006-2030

Betül özer^*, Erdem Görgün, Selahattin Incecik

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Environmental Engineering

Istanbul Technical University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

71 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A scenario analysis method based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used for an analysis of reduction of emissions in the electricity sector of Turkey. Business As Usual (BAU) and Mitigation Scenarios address the simulations from different approaches. Each scenario represents a different development path which is possible in Turkey's electricity sector due to various policies. The simulations are applied until the year 2030, while 2006 is set as the base year. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions will rise significantly under the Baseline Scenario. In the Mitigation Scenario, electricity-related CO₂ emissions grew by 5.8% annually between 2006 and 2030, while electricity output grew at an average of 6.6% per annum in this period. Comparison between the CO₂ emissions suggested by the scenarios presents the mitigation potential of the electricity sector. The Mitigation Scenario is characterized by its aggressive greenhouse gas (GHG) control policies and can achieve mitigation ratio of 17.5% over the simulation period. The cumulative CO₂ emission reduction between the BAU and Mitigation Scenarios from 2006 to 2030 is 903 million tons. Additionally, CO₂ emission intensity has decreased by 18.4% in 2030 compared to 2006.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	395-403
Number of pages	9
Journal	Energy
Volume	49
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.10.059
Publication status	Published - 1 Jan 2013

Funding

This study was supported by Istanbul Technical University (ITU) as part of the “Analysis of CO 2 Emission Mitigation Potential in Turkish Electricity Sector by Energy-Environment Model” project. The authors would also like to acknowledge the significant data support from EUAS and DPT (State Planning Organisation) with special thanks and also would like to thank the editorial team of this journal for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper. Of course, any errors and omissions are due to the authors.

Funders	Funder number
Istanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

Keywords

Electricity demand projection
Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP)
Turkish electricity sector

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1016/j.energy.2012.10.059

Cite this

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title = "The scenario analysis on CO2 emission mitigation potential in the Turkish electricity sector: 2006-2030",

abstract = "A scenario analysis method based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used for an analysis of reduction of emissions in the electricity sector of Turkey. Business As Usual (BAU) and Mitigation Scenarios address the simulations from different approaches. Each scenario represents a different development path which is possible in Turkey's electricity sector due to various policies. The simulations are applied until the year 2030, while 2006 is set as the base year. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise significantly under the Baseline Scenario. In the Mitigation Scenario, electricity-related CO2 emissions grew by 5.8% annually between 2006 and 2030, while electricity output grew at an average of 6.6% per annum in this period. Comparison between the CO2 emissions suggested by the scenarios presents the mitigation potential of the electricity sector. The Mitigation Scenario is characterized by its aggressive greenhouse gas (GHG) control policies and can achieve mitigation ratio of 17.5% over the simulation period. The cumulative CO2 emission reduction between the BAU and Mitigation Scenarios from 2006 to 2030 is 903 million tons. Additionally, CO2 emission intensity has decreased by 18.4% in 2030 compared to 2006.",

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AB - A scenario analysis method based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used for an analysis of reduction of emissions in the electricity sector of Turkey. Business As Usual (BAU) and Mitigation Scenarios address the simulations from different approaches. Each scenario represents a different development path which is possible in Turkey's electricity sector due to various policies. The simulations are applied until the year 2030, while 2006 is set as the base year. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise significantly under the Baseline Scenario. In the Mitigation Scenario, electricity-related CO2 emissions grew by 5.8% annually between 2006 and 2030, while electricity output grew at an average of 6.6% per annum in this period. Comparison between the CO2 emissions suggested by the scenarios presents the mitigation potential of the electricity sector. The Mitigation Scenario is characterized by its aggressive greenhouse gas (GHG) control policies and can achieve mitigation ratio of 17.5% over the simulation period. The cumulative CO2 emission reduction between the BAU and Mitigation Scenarios from 2006 to 2030 is 903 million tons. Additionally, CO2 emission intensity has decreased by 18.4% in 2030 compared to 2006.

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