The 2023 Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake rupture increases potential failure along the northern Dead Sea Fault

The 6 February 2023 earthquake sequence along the East Anatolian Fault (EAF, Mw 7.8) and Çardak fault (CF, Mw 7.6) in southern Turkiye reveals the importance of seismic gaps and fault segments interaction. Both large earthquakes show shallow hypocentres (<15 km), strike-slip mechanisms, with the NE-SW trending Golbaşi-Kahramanmaraş-Karasu fault segments reaching ∼350 km and the E-W trending Çardak fault ∼150 km. Field investigations of surface ruptures, aided by Sentinel 2 image correlation, document the coseismic slip distribution, reaching 8 m on the Pazarcik segment and 4.1 m on the Kirikhan segment. Prior to the recent seismic sequence, our field investigations included the SW segments of the EAF and northern Dead Sea Fault (DSF). Detailed fault mapping was conducted from 2003 to 2007 along the EAF fault from Golbaşi to Antakia and along the DSF from the Ghab Basin to the Amik Basin and the intersection with the EAF. According to contemporaneous historical accounts, the 29 November 1114 earthquake that severely affected Antakia, Marash (Kahramanmaraş), Adiyaman and Urfa (Şanlurfa) causing 40,000 victims, may represent the predecessor to the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake. A possible evidence of fault interaction between the EAF and Dead Sea Fault (DSF) is shown by the southward migration of large historical earthquakes from the major 1114 CE seismic event on the SW EAF to the 1138 CE, 1156, 1170, and 1202 large earthquake sequences on the northern segments of DSF. The modelling of the seismic slip deficit and stress transfer illustrates the significant seismic hazard with the potential for a failure increase and a ∼ 21 year-time clustering of major events along the northern DSF segments.