Temporal and spatial seismic risk scenarios of Istanbul

Istanbul is an earthquake-prone megacity due to its proximity to the North Anatolian Fault. Historical events such as the 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes have demonstrated the probable risks which Istanbul is facing aligned with its exposure and vulnerabilities at different levels. This study aims to evaluate Istanbul’s seismic risks through six different scenarios, integrating both temporal and spatial dimensions to provide a comprehensive understanding of risk reduction and disaster preparedness. Using the Impact Chains (IC) methodology, the study examines the immediate, short-term and long-term impacts of earthquakes occurring at different times and under different conditions. Scenarios range from a winter evening with heavy traffic to a summer weekday afternoon in tourist-heavy areas. Key findings highlight critical challenges in communications, infrastructure and emergency response, and emphasize the need for robust disaster management strategies. This study underscores the importance of a multi-faceted approach to earthquake risk management in megacities and provides valuable insights for policy makers, urban planners and disaster management professionals to reduce risks and increase resilience in Istanbul.