Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems

Gizem Intepe; Tufan V. Koc

doi:10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132

Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems

Gizem Intepe, Tufan V. Koc

Department of Industrial Engineering

Istanbul Technical University

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A complex product system consists of numerous subsystems organized in a hierarchical fashion. In literature there exists a tendency in measuring the life cycle of main system by using parameters which characterize the performance of that main technology. This may lead to problems in investment decisions for technology renewal since the forecast of main system technology lifecycle is associated but does not fully represent its subsystems lifecycle. This paper intends to clarify this problem with a case study by showing while the main system is in its midlife; some of the subsystems are approaching their limits and requires urgent radical investment. As a case study refrigerator system is used and the relevant life cycles are obtained using growth curves as a technology forecasting tool. The findings are discussed and suggestions for the need of a multiple level of analysis are given in the discussion section.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	PICMET 2015 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology
Subtitle of host publication	Management of the Technology Age, Proceedings
Editors	Tugrul U. Daim, Dilek Cetindamar Kozanoglu, Dundar F. Kocaoglu, Timothy R. Anderson, Gary Perman, Kiyoshi Niwa
Publisher	Portland State University
Pages	2133-2138
Number of pages	6
ISBN (Electronic)	9781890843328
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132
Publication status	Published - 21 Sept 2015
Event	Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology, PICMET 2015 - Portland, United States Duration: 2 Aug 2015 → 6 Aug 2015

Publication series

Name	Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology
Volume	2015-September

Conference

Conference	Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology, PICMET 2015
Country/Territory	United States
City	Portland
Period	2/08/15 → 6/08/15

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology.

Access to Document

10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132

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Intepe, G., & Koc, T. V. (2015). Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems. In T. U. Daim, D. C. Kozanoglu, D. F. Kocaoglu, T. R. Anderson, G. Perman, & K. Niwa (Eds.), PICMET 2015 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology: Management of the Technology Age, Proceedings (pp. 2133-2138). Article 7273132 (Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology; Vol. 2015-September). Portland State University. https://doi.org/10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132

Intepe, Gizem ; Koc, Tufan V. / Technology forecasting : Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems. PICMET 2015 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology: Management of the Technology Age, Proceedings. editor / Tugrul U. Daim ; Dilek Cetindamar Kozanoglu ; Dundar F. Kocaoglu ; Timothy R. Anderson ; Gary Perman ; Kiyoshi Niwa. Portland State University, 2015. pp. 2133-2138 (Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology).

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Intepe, G & Koc, TV 2015, Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems. in TU Daim, DC Kozanoglu, DF Kocaoglu, TR Anderson, G Perman & K Niwa (eds), PICMET 2015 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology: Management of the Technology Age, Proceedings., 7273132, Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology, vol. 2015-September, Portland State University, pp. 2133-2138, Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology, PICMET 2015, Portland, United States, 2/08/15. https://doi.org/10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132

Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems. / Intepe, Gizem; Koc, Tufan V.
PICMET 2015 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology: Management of the Technology Age, Proceedings. ed. / Tugrul U. Daim; Dilek Cetindamar Kozanoglu; Dundar F. Kocaoglu; Timothy R. Anderson; Gary Perman; Kiyoshi Niwa. Portland State University, 2015. p. 2133-2138 7273132 (Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology; Vol. 2015-September).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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Intepe G, Koc TV. Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems. In Daim TU, Kozanoglu DC, Kocaoglu DF, Anderson TR, Perman G, Niwa K, editors, PICMET 2015 - Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology: Management of the Technology Age, Proceedings. Portland State University. 2015. p. 2133-2138. 7273132. (Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology). doi: 10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273132

Technology forecasting: Focusing on main system or aggregation of subsystems

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Bibliographical note

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