Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Land Surface Temperature and Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Urmia Lake Basin: Exploring Land-Atmosphere Interactions Through Satellite Data and Ground Observations (2000–2023)

Land Surface Temperature (LST) dynamics play a crucial role in understanding land-atmosphere interactions, serving as a key indicator of environmental and climate changes. This study investigates the LST dynamics in the Urmia Lake Basin (ULB) in northwestern Iran. Using MODIS products and Landsat images, this study examines the spatiotemporal variations in LST and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes from 2000 to 2023, with a focus on the August month. The results indicated an increase of about 9.63 °C in the average Urmia Lake Surface Temperature (ULST) over the study period, highlighting the severe impact of the lake’s drying. In contrast, Basin Surface Temperature (BST) showed no consistent trend, declining from 2000 to 2009, peaking at 43.2 °C in 2017, then falling to 41 °C by 2023. This fluctuation reflects cooling effects from irrigated agriculture, which expanded 1.83 times since 2000, enhancing evapotranspiration and altering land surface heat dynamics. The accuracy assessment was carried out by comparing MODIS-LST results and ground-based temperature measurements from five synoptic stations. Several statistical parameters were used to evaluate the results, including the correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of determination (R²), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Bias Error (MBE), and Percent Bias (PBIAS). The assessment revealed strong statistical indicators, with R values ranging from 0.29 to 0.78 and MBE values ranging between 0.36 °C and 0.65 °C across studied stations. These results confirm the reliability of the study, demonstrating that the satellite derived results effectively represent LST and LULC dynamics in the region, further solidifying the robustness of the findings.