SLEUTH Modeling Informed by Landscape Ecology Principles: Case Study Using Scenario-Based Planning in Sariyer, Istanbul, Turkey

Scenario-based land-use planning depends on choosing from among a range of inputs to a calibrated model to explore the corresponding range of future outputs and impacts - but how are these inputs chosen? This case study examined how a landscape ecology approach could better shape scenario development for a SLEUTH (slope, land use, exclusion, urban, transportation, and hillshade) model application toward achieving possibly more ecologically sustainable scenarios and, therefore, future landscapes. Our methodology relied on two main steps - developing landscape-ecology-led growth scenarios and using SLEUTH to model their impacts on urban growth and land-use change. As a case study, we applied the model to Sariyer, Istanbul, for the year 2045, where transportation infrastructure changes portend significant implications for the future landscape. Even though there are many works on urban growth in the international literature, there has been only limited investigation of the effects of urban transportation systems in developing nations and their implications for urban landscapes. This study's novelty lies in including a landscape ecology approach in the scenario development to enable better integration with modeling and the use of landscape metrics to modify the scenarios and interpret the model outcomes. Our research question is: can a joint approach of scenario development using landscape ecology principles (associated with landscape metrics) and SLEUTH modeling accurately forecast the impacts of landscape ecology and ecosystem services on human and urban systems? We conclude that a landscape ecology approach does help illuminate future urban-growth behavior led by transportation system development. Landscape ecology can be a medium through which the SLEUTH model can articulate more-comprehensive ecological planning related to the implications of different growth scenarios.