Simulating land-cover change in Montane mainland southeast Asia

Jefferson Fox*, John B. Vogler, Omer L. Sen, Thomas W. Giambelluca, Alan D. Ziegler

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

79 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We used the conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE-s) model to simulate scenarios of land-cover change in Montane mainland southeast Asia (MMSEA), a region in the midst of transformation due to rapid intensification of agriculture and expansion of regional trade markets. Simulated changes affected approximately 10 % of the MMSEA landscape between 2001 and 2025 and 16 % between 2001 and 2050. Roughly 9 % of the current vegetation, which consists of native species of trees, shrubs, and grasses, is projected to be replaced by tree plantations, tea, and other evergreen shrubs during the 50 years period. Importantly, 4 % of this transition is expected to be due to the expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), a tree plantation crop that may have important implications for local-to-regional scale hydrology because of its potentially high water consumption in the dry season.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)968-979
Number of pages12
JournalEnvironmental Management
Volume49
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2012

Keywords

  • CLUE-s
  • Land change modeling
  • Land cover
  • Rubber
  • Southeast Asia

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